101. Predestination, Certainty, and the Number of the Elect

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Lecture Notes

Main Topics #

The Certainty of Predestination Without Necessity #

• Predestination achieves its effects most surely (certissime) and infallibly
• Yet it does not place absolute necessity on created things
• Effects come about contingently according to the condition of proximate causes
• God orders both necessary causes (whose effects happen necessarily) and contingent causes (whose effects happen contingently)
• The order of providence itself is infallible despite the contingency of its effects
• Analogy: A poet orders chance events in a dramatic plot to achieve a pleasing effect; similarly, God orders contingent events to achieve His purposes

Free Will and Divine Predestination #

• Free will is not taken away by predestination
• The effect of predestination comes about in a contingent way through free human choice
• This distinction parallels what was established earlier about divine knowledge and divine will—both are certain yet do not eliminate contingency

The Distinction Between Absolute and Conditional Possibility #

• Some things are possible absolutely (in themselves)
• Other things are possible absolutely but impossible given something else (ex suppositione)
• Example: A person could be standing in themselves, but cannot be standing when sitting
• Applied to predestination: A predestined person (like Peter) could sin considered by himself, but given that he is predestined, he cannot die in mortal sin
• This invokes the fallacy of composition and division in logic—distinguishing between divided sense (considering things separately) and composed sense (considering the conjunction of facts)

The Number of the Predestined #

• The number of the predestined is certain to God both by knowledge and by choice/definition
• Every agent intends to make something limited (bounded, with an end)
• God foreorders a determined measure of the whole universe and the number of its essential parts
• Essential parts (ordered per se to the good of the universe): spheres, stars, elements, species of things, and especially rational creatures
• Corruptible individuals are ordered to the good of the universe only secondarily (per accidens), as individuals are ordered to the conservation of the species
• Rational creatures achieving beatitude are ordered per se to the good of the universe because they directly attain the last end (God himself)
• Therefore, a specific number of the saved is certain to God by His choice, not merely by His knowledge
• Various opinions on the exact number exist:
  • As many men are saved as angels fell
  • As many men are saved as angels remain
  • As many men are saved as angels fell, plus as many as angels were created
• It is best to say that only God knows the exact number of the elect

God’s Perfect Knowledge Despite Uncertainty to Creatures #

• God knows the exact number of raindrops, grains of sand, and all particular things
• But not all such particular numbers are per se ordered by God—only those essential to the perfection of the universe
• God’s knowledge is certain about particulars, but His per se ordering (and thus His predestination) concerns primarily universal forms and essential parts

Responses to Objections #

• On the crown that can be lost: A crown is held in two ways: (1) from divine predestination (which cannot be lost), and (2) from merited grace (which can be lost through mortal sin). The Deuteronomy text refers to the latter.
• On increased numbers: Deuteronomy’s language about adding to the number refers to those called to present justice, not to the number of the predestined itself
• On assigning reasons for the number: The reason for the quantity of any part should be taken from its proportion to the whole. Thus, God has a reason from the ratio of the elect to the good of the universe for determining their number
• On more being lost than saved: Salvation exceeds the common state of nature, especially for beings corrupted by sin. Common goods happen for the most part; goods exceeding nature happen in fewer. Thus fewer are saved than lost, yet this manifests God’s mercy most powerfully

Key Arguments #

Argument for Certainty of Predestination (Against Article 6) #

Objection: How can predestination be certain if people can acquire and lose crowns (eternal rewards)?

Response:

• The crown in Apocalypse 3 refers to the fruit of merit, which can be lost through sin
• Predestination itself (as God’s eternal decree) cannot be lost
• Distinction: predestination as God’s eternal choice ≠ predestined effects in time

Objection: Could not God will differently than He actually does?

Response:

• Predestination includes the divine will
• God’s will is necessary ex suppositione (given that He has willed something, He cannot will otherwise)
• This is not absolute necessity (God could absolutely will differently) but conditional necessity (having willed X, God cannot will not-X)
• This applies the distinction of composed vs. divided sense: absolutely God could will differently, but in the composed sense (given His eternal decision), He cannot

Argument for Determinate Number of the Predestined (Against Article 7) #

Objection: How can there be a certain number when scripture says numbers can be added to?

Response:

• Deuteronomy speaks of those called to present justice (whose number changes), not the predestined
• Predestination is part of God’s eternal providence; its number is fixed in God’s knowledge and choice

Objection: Why would more not be saved than damned, if God’s operation is more perfect than nature’s?

Response:

• Common natural goods occur for the most part; defects from them are rare
• Goods exceeding nature occur in fewer; defects from such goods occur in more
• Beatitude exceeds the common state of corrupted nature, so fewer are saved
• This actually displays God’s mercy most powerfully—that He elevates some to such an exceeding good

Important Definitions #

Predestination (in this lecture) #

• An eternal act of God’s will and knowledge
• Achieves its effects infallibly and most certainly (certissime)
• Comprises both the eternal decree and its temporal execution through grace and glory
• Does not place absolute necessity on creatures but orders contingent effects through contingent causes

Ex suppositione #

• “On account of” or “given that”; conditional necessity
• Not absolute necessity, but necessity granted a particular supposition
• Example: Given that God has willed me to be, He cannot will me not to be
• Applies to God’s unchangeable will

Composed sense (sensus compositus) vs. Divided sense (sensus divisus) #

• Composed: considering things in their conjunction (e.g., “I am sitting”)
• Divided: considering things separately (e.g., “I could be standing” considered apart from “I am sitting”)
• In composed sense: “I cannot be standing when sitting”
• In divided sense: “I can be standing (at some time, apart from my sitting now)”
• Applied to predestination: In divided sense, a predestined person could absolutely sin; in composed sense, given predestination, they cannot die in mortal sin

Per se vs. Per accidens (Ordered per se vs. per accidens) #

• Per se: ordered in itself, directly to an end
• Per accidens: ordered indirectly, for the sake of something else
• Rational creatures achieving beatitude are ordered per se to the universe’s good
• Corruptible individuals are ordered per accidens (through the species)

Examples & Illustrations #

The Crown in Scripture #

• Revelation 3:5 uses “crown” as metaphor for eternal reward
• A crown can be both: (1) held through divine predestination (immovable), and (2) merited through grace (losable)
• When someone falls away through mortal sin, their individually merited crown is transferred to another
• Those in heaven rejoice not only in their own goods but in goods accomplished by others and in the good of others

The Housebuilder #

• A builder determines the measure of the house and the number of rooms (essential parts)
• The builder does not pre-determine the exact number of stones, but takes as many as needed to fill the measure
• Similarly, God determines the number of rational creatures (essential to universe’s perfection) but not necessarily each particular corruptible individual

Standing and Sitting #

• Can I be standing now? Yes, absolutely (divided sense)
• Can I be standing when I am sitting? No, in composed sense
• This distinguishes between absolute and conditional possibility
• Sophists confuse these senses to create fallacies

The Poet’s Plot #

• A poet orders chance events and coincidences in a dramatic plot
• Characters act freely, yet the poet’s design is certain
• The audience’s pleasure at the plot is achieved through these free, contingent events
• Analogously, God orders contingent free human choices to achieve His certain providential purposes

Knowledge vs. Ordering #

• God knows the number of raindrops, grains of sand, and all ants
• But He does not per se order each raindrop or each ant to the universe’s good
• He orders only a sufficient number of such individuals to preserve the species
• By contrast, He per se orders the number of rational creatures achieving beatitude

Questions Addressed #

Can Predestination Be Certain While Preserving Free Will? #

Answer: Yes. God’s predestination is certain and infallible in its achievement. Yet it achieves its effects through the operation of free secondary causes ordered contingently. The analogy: a poet’s plot is certain in effect, yet the characters act contingently and freely within it.

Is There a Determined Number of the Predestined? #

Answer: Yes, the number is certain to God both by His knowledge and by His choice/will. However, this number is known to God alone. Various theological opinions exist about what it might be, but it is better to acknowledge only God knows it.

Why Are Fewer Saved Than Lost? #

Answer: Salvation exceeds the common state of corrupted nature. In nature, common goods occur for the most part; in the supernatural order, goods exceeding nature occur in fewer. Yet this manifests God’s mercy most powerfully—that He elevates some to such an extraordinary good.

How Does the Distinction of Composed/Divided Sense Apply to Predestination? #

Answer: In divided sense, a predestined person could absolutely sin (considering the person apart from predestination). In composed sense, given that he is predestined, he cannot die in mortal sin (or if he does fall temporarily, he will be restored). The fallacy of composition and division confuses these senses.

Notable Quotes #

“Predestination most surely and infallibly achieves its effect, but nevertheless it does not place necessity upon things, that the effect from necessity come about.” — Thomas Aquinas (core thesis of Article 6)

“The order of providence is infallible as has been shown above. Thus, therefore, the order of predestination is certain. And nevertheless, the free will is not taken away from which the effect of predestination comes about in a contingent way.” — Thomas Aquinas

“In one way a crown is said to be as someone from divine predestination and thus no one loses his crown. In another way from the merit of grace… and thus someone is able to lose the crown that he merits.” — Thomas Aquinas (response to first objection, Article 6)

“The number of those predestined is certain to God, not only by reason of knowledge… but also by reason of his choice and his definition of each.” — Thomas Aquinas (key distinction in Article 7)

“Narrow is the gate and straight the way which leads to life, and few there are who find it.” — Matthew 7:14 (cited as scriptural evidence that fewer are saved than lost)